One week analysis of the hottest domestic high pre

2022-09-19
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A week's analysis of the domestic high-pressure polyethylene market (4.28)

in the past month, the domestic high-pressure polyethylene market has always been shrouded in an atmosphere of pessimistic decline. The market price has further continued the previous downturn trend, and continues to show a downward trend. The overall mentality of the market is confused, wait-and-see and helpless, and the transaction is very light. The delivery speed of domestic high-pressure polyethylene production enterprises continued to slow down, and the inventory pressure increased significantly, so they had to issue various preferential policies or reduce prices again. However, domestic intermediate traders and downstream end users generally believed that there was still room for decline in the aftermarket, and they were not eager to enter the market, thus forming a pattern of weak market rebound and deep decline

the market price of linear high-pressure polyethylene fluctuates constantly. In April, it fluctuates several times, showing the characteristics of short fluctuation cycle, weak price upward momentum and limited decline

as of the end of April, the general transaction price of domestic high-pressure polyethylene market was yuan/ton (film material), down about 400 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; The market price of linear high-pressure polyethylene was yuan/ton, down about 300 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The fluctuation factors of high-pressure market price in this month can be summarized as follows: at the end of January and March, under the situation of Sinopec's comprehensive and strict assessment of enterprise production and sales rate, some domestic high-pressure production enterprises with poor sales had to reduce the ex factory price significantly to clean up their inventory, which stimulated the market decline trend beginning in early April

2. The outbreak of the Gulf War made traders generally launch the market wait-and-see, and domestic demand decreased rapidly, resulting in a serious oversupply in the market. The spread of SARS in large and medium-sized cities in China has also hit the market trading situation. At the same time, the export situation of domestic plastic products is declining due to the double blow of war and SARS, which undoubtedly forms a great pressure on the early bottoming and recovery of the overall market

since March and April, the international crude oil and ethylene market has shown a significant downward trend, especially the price of ethylene market in Asia has continued to fall sharply, which has a great negative impact on the popularity of the domestic market

4. Domestic linear height 8. Test space: 600mm pressure market rebound is weak, making the whole plastic bear the pressure of continuous decline

at present, the crude oil and downstream chemical markets are still affected by a variety of negative factors, and the continuous decline of external prices is also increasing the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic market. The prevalence of SARS has also cast a shadow on the global economy, and the demand for plastic raw materials and intermediate products will be greater than or lower than the historical low in the same period. The product prices quoted by major polyethylene producers in Asia in May were about US dollars/ton lower than the average level in April. At present, the CIF import price has been basically in line with the domestic market price, but due to the weak demand and the expected price decline, the number of domestic traders receiving goods is not large

on the whole, affected by the war between the United States and Iraq and the "SARS", China's exports of plastic products have been blocked and domestic demand has been relatively weak, which has led to the difficulty of significant growth in effective demand in a short time. In this case, it is expected that by the end of April, production enterprises will increase product promotion to ensure that the production and sales rate in April reaches 100%, and ensure that the road behind production is smooth during the festival. At the beginning of May, the downward trend of the market as a whole may continue for some time. The negative supply and demand situation may still make it difficult for the market to reach the bottom. It is estimated that the market price is expected to gradually slow down after the middle of the year

1. The linear high-pressure polyethylene market has entered the off-season of demand

under the condition that other varieties have not stopped falling, it is impossible for the linear high-pressure polyethylene market not to continue innovation. After entering the off-season, it is difficult for prices to rise. Market participants pointed out that after entering the middle of April, the agricultural film season has passed, and the end of the peak demand season has made the market more wait-and-see mood, There is even a poor expectation that the price will fall to 5500 yuan/ton of low iron aluminum production, which is the company's first new profit growth point. In the past month, domestic linear prices have changed frequently. In fact, whether the price rises or falls, only a few people have entered the market, and most of them have left the market cautiously, fearing large fluctuations in the market. The micro milltm pilot test and commercial production line is built in Alcoa's San Antonio rolling plant in Texas. Therefore, it is estimated that the linear high-voltage price has risen steadily The process of market demand amplification will be relatively long

2. Traders have a poor mentality in future operations

most manufacturers pointed out that the biggest problem in the current market is psychology. Due to the obvious decline in the prices of international crude oil, naphtha, ethylene and propylene, people are unwilling to act rashly in the case of insufficient confidence in the market and market downturn, and the final demand cannot be substantially amplified. In this case, the price will slowly decline, and then gradually bottom out

3. The weak market demand is difficult to alleviate quickly.

in the short term, the high-pressure polyethylene market is still difficult to get out of the trough. Although the rapid fall in the market price in the early stage will gradually narrow the space for market decline, traditionally, domestic plastic post-processing plants, especially agricultural film processing plants, have successively reduced production after mid April, entering the traditional off-season of demand in the domestic plastic market, which will increase the pressure on the future market. In addition, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is always low, which makes the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic high-pressure polyethylene market worse. Therefore, it is estimated that under the condition that the demand of traders and plastic post-processing enterprises is quite weak, the situation of light market transactions is difficult to ease in the short term

4. The war and "SARS" factors make the market cloudy. From the end of April to may, the domestic high-pressure polyethylene market will also be shrouded in the war, especially the "SARS" cloud. Not only is it difficult to predict the timetable for the resumption of the rise in the market price of crude oil and raw materials, but also the prevalence of "SARS" has greatly affected the export of domestic products. The market mentality has fallen to the bottom, and traders are generally on the sidelines

therefore, it is generally estimated that although the domestic high-pressure polyethylene market has fallen sharply for a period of time, it is difficult to make a big change in the short term. In May, the market will continue to hover at a low point, and the decline will gradually narrow

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