The hottest steel trade pallets have been shipped

2022-08-08
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Steel trade "pallets" successively shipped iron ore, which was supplemented by overseas investment banks

since March, the price of domestic iron ore has fallen continuously, and the decline of the main iron ore of dashangsuo during the 1805 contract was once close to 100 yuan

the so-called pallet is a unique business model in the steel industry. When traders are short of funds, they often order by paying a certain deposit to the pallet party and paying the remaining payment on behalf of the pallet party. When the agreed time expires, the chamber of Commerce will pay an additional interest on the basis of the payment

"at the end of the year, the funds were relatively tight, which coincided with the winter reserve. Some traders carried out pallet financing out of optimistic outlook. Generally, the pallet time was between 3 and 6 months, so after entering March, some pallets gradually expired." Xing Yue, an industry analyst, said on March 22

according to the 21st Century Business Herald, compared with other black series commodities, the fundamentals of iron ore are also the weakest. Under the background of the decline in steel prices, the decline in ore prices is even greater and does not exceed market expectations

in addition, the continuous decline of iron ore was once again condemned by many overseas investment banks such as Citigroup and Morgan Stanley. Among them, the reason given by Citigroup is "increased supply", and Morgan Stanley lowered the target price of iron ore for nearly three years respectively

the expiration of winter storage pallets

"pallets have been in the spot trade of the steel industry for many years." Analyst xuliying said on March 22

according to her introduction, tray is essentially just a means of financing. Small steel traders with insufficient financial strength will look for the financing party to advance orders in the form of paying interest, and the goods are equivalent to temporarily mortgaged to the advance party. "For the advance party, there is both warehouse receipt mortgage and additional interest income, and the risk is relatively small."

because steel traders only need to pay a certain amount of deposit in the ordering process, it also has a certain leverage attribute. When the market turns down, it will undoubtedly bring some risks

in 2013, can the steel company be introduced in the new year? During the continuous decline, listed companies such as Sinoma International have failed to perform the purchase and sales contracts

Xu Liying said that at first, the models were simple, but later, many more complex models were derived. Especially in 2015, tray financing risk events were the most concentrated, "this model was introduced from the south, and it was relatively large in Tianjin for some time."

21st Century Business Herald understands that relevant research projects have been carried out mainly under the leadership of national scientific research institutions. It is found that the advance fund is mainly from central and state-owned enterprises with relatively strong financial strength, and the products involved cover almost all the main products of the iron and steel industry chain, such as iron ore, billet and finished products

"sumeda, Hangzhou ReLian, and Zhongtuo Products Co., Ltd. are well-known in the tray business in the industry, which mainly depends on the financial strength of the company." Xing Yue said

according to the cycle of 3 to 6 months, after entering 3 months, some pallets have begun to expire in succession. In addition, at that time, the relevant varieties of the steel industry chain were in a downward trend. After considering the capital cost and profit space factors, steel traders began to reduce prices and ship goods, which to a certain extent had a downward effect

Xu Liying said that the price was high during the winter storage last year, and the product price began to fall after March. At that time, traders were caught in the dilemma of rising capital costs and falling product prices, and the profit space was shrinking

from the above-mentioned consignment business model, it may also explain why the black series commodities fell sharply after March

on the other hand, iron ore is the weakest fundamental of all black commodities. Moreover, since 2015, the trend of iron ore has been significantly weaker than that of steel, coke and other varieties

"in the medium and short term, this year, the number of high-quality imported mines increased significantly, while domestic port inventories continued to hit new highs, which also brought a certain negative impact." Xia Xuezhao, a researcher in the steel industry of Southwest futures, pointed out on March 22

according to him, the three iron ore giants of vale and BHP Billiton in Brazil are increasing production. "Although the ore price has not increased much in the past two years, their cost line is about $30, and now the ore price is $60, which is still in the stage of profiteering."

the main seats turn around less than

the change of industry fundamentals is only a prerequisite, and the real factor affecting the price also lies in the capital side. During the fall of the above iron ore futures prices, there were also obvious position changes

according to the data, the total position of iron ore futures was 1.847 million hands on February 28, and increased to 2.234 million hands on the 12th in the first stage of the decline, especially on the day of the sharp decline on the 19th, the single day increase reached 196000 hands

it can be seen at least that the recent continuous decline of iron ore has also attracted some funds to enter the market for trading. However, perhaps the current round of black series commodities fell more suddenly, and the seats of several major institutions failed to change the Bulls' thinking in time

compared with the position data reported at the end of the 21st century economy, it is found that the positions of CITIC futures, Galaxy futures and SDIC Anxin futures, the top three companies, have been mainly net long since March

take Galaxy futures as an example, the net long position of this seat in the iron ore 1805 contract was 29247 hands on March 1, and then, with the continuous decline of iron ore prices, it prematurely reduced the short order of 11190 hands on March 2

this also made the seat always maintain a net long position during the current round of iron ore decline, and it once reached 25856 hands by March 14

the situation of CITIC futures seats is similar. During the above-mentioned period, it is also in a net long position, but the number of net long orders is significantly lower than that of Galaxy futures seats. The peak is only 20322 hands, and most of the time it is less than 10000 hands

in contrast, the current short brother's seat in the SDIC Anxin is much more flexible

in the early stage of the decline of iron ore, although the Bulls' thinking was not changed in time, there was a brief "multiple short turn" on March 7, and the seats on that day changed from a net multiple order to a clearance order

however, with the stabilization of iron ore prices in the past two days, the changes in the positions of the above seats have also become more cautious. The net excess orders of CITIC and Galaxy seats have declined at the same time, and the clearance order of SDIC Anxin has only remained at 2264 hands

in order to avoid being tracked by the market, large funds often open accounts in multiple futures companies and trade in the form of sub positions

if the net multiple order status is displayed on the galaxy seat, the above types of funds can still be hedged by issuing blank orders in other seats

therefore, by tracking the position changes of seats, we can only roughly see the profit and loss status of a single seat in a certain market stage, and we cannot estimate the profit and loss of the investors behind it

in contrast, overseas institutions have recently begun to frequently decline the trend of iron ore

according to the research report recently released by Morgan Stanley, the price of iron ore in the year was lowered quarter by quarter. The price of iron ore was expected to be $68/ton in the second quarter, $65 in the third quarter and $60 in the fourth quarter

"the premise of strong ore price is strong steel price. There is no reason for iron ore itself to rise, and the supply and demand side is oversupplied." Xia Xuezhao pointed out on March 22

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